Predicting Recessions via the Sabbatical Year (Updated)

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More Financial Instability for 2015 Predicted Via the Last 7 Sabbatical Years
This is an update of an earlier blog.
In Judaism, the number 7 is very important. The Menorah in Torah has 7 candles. There are 7 days to each week, with Shabbat on the 7th day. The Sabbatical year, which for Jews occurs 1 in every 7 years, has often been a difficult year for financial markets. The financial difficulties the USA has been through show this trend to be true counting 7 Sabbaticals in a row; 2015, 2008, 2001, 1994, 1987, 1980, 1973.

In the Bible, the command to release debts in the seventh year is in Deuteronomy 15:2.

For Orthodox Jews, this is the year 5775. It is also a Sabbatical year, where according to the Bible at the end of this year debts are to be forgiven. That is 5775 / 7 = 825, meaning this is the 825th Sabbatical year since the beginning of creation. Also, please take note; the Hebrew calendar does not begin January 1st. The Hebrew year begins with Rosh Hashanah.

2015 is already following the Sabbatical year pattern financial difficulties. It is already my first example, and since August of 2014 the market has shown increased instability, where September was the time of Rosh Hashanah, the date of the Jewish New Year’s 5775 beginning.

This does not mean that Jews are to blame for anything. The Sabbatical is Gd’s way. Gd is sovereign. It is up to us to figure how to rule this world. This just happens to be the way Gd makes us work.

Let me illustrate: it is now 2015 according to the Gregorian calendar, a Sabbatical year, the 825th Sabbatical, and financial markets are already showing signs of correction. The pattern is as such, by subtracting 7 years from 2015, as the Sabbatical occurs every 7 years; we end up with the last financial crisis, the Great Recession of 2008.
2015 - 7 = 2008, the 824th Sabbatical and a year of recession.

A 3rd example of this market recession pattern is the “Early 2000s recession” that lasted from March 2001–Nov 2001.
2008 – 7 = 2001, the 823rd Sabbatical year, and a year of recession.

A 4th example of financial difficulty similar to this pattern was a bond market selloff of 1994.
2001 - 7 = 1994, the 822nd Sabbatical year, where there was a bond market selloff.

A 5th example is Black Monday (1987), where there was a historical stock market crash in the year 1987.
1994 - 7 = 1987, the 821st Sabbatical year, and a period of market instability

A 6th example is the “1980 recession” that lasted from Jan–July 1980.
1987 - 7 = 1980, the 820th Sabbatical year, and a year of recession.

A 7th example is the “1973–75 recession” that lasted from Nov 1973 – Mar 1975.

1980 – 7 = 1973 yet another number divisible by 7 that follows the pattern of Sabbatical years.

In Judaism, the number 7 is very important.  The Menorah in Torah has 7 candles.  There are 7 days to each week, with Shabbat on the 7^th day.  The Sabbatical year, which for Jews occurs 1 in every 7 years, has often been a difficult year for financial markets.  In the Bible, the command to release debts in the seventh year is in Deuteronomy (15:2).

For Orthodox Jews, this is the year 5775, and since it is a Sabbatical year, at the end of this year debts are to be forgiven.  That is 5775 / 7 = 825, meaning this is the 825th Sabbatical year since the beginning of creation.  Huh? Maybe there is something to these ancient teachings.  Also, please take note; the Hebrew calendar does not begin January 1^st.  The Hebrew year begins with Rosh Hashanah.

This does not mean that Jews are to blame for anything.  The Sabbatical is Gd’s.  Gd is sovereign.  This just happens to be the way Gd makes things work.

Let me illustrate: it is now 2015 according to the Gregorian Calendar, a Sabbatical year, and financial markets are already showing signs of correction.  It does appear that this year will follow the established pattern.  The pattern is as such, by subtracting 7 years from 2015, as the Sabbatical occurs every 7 years, we up with the last financial crisis, the Great Recession of 2008.  Thus, 2015 - 7 = 2008, a year of recession.

A 3^rd example of this market recession pattern is the “Early 2000s recession” that lasted from March 2001–Nov 2001.  2008 – 7 = 2001, a year of recession.

A 4^th example is the “1980 recession” that lasted from Jan–July 1980.  2001 - ( 7 * 3 ) = 1980, a year of recession.  Thus, it is not only on Sabbatical years that recessions can occur, and more importantly the Sabbatical year does not mandate recession.

A 5^th example is the “1973–75 recession” that lasted from Nov 1973 – Mar 1975.  1980 – 7 = 1973 yet another number divisible by 7 that follows the pattern of Sabbatical years.

Wal-Mart and Getting Beyond Money in Economics

I don't wish to trade numbers on Wal-Mart. In my head, I believe Wal-Mart has too much money, and it is also in my head that it is important to redistribute that money. What we have here is an issue of money plumbing. The pipe leading from Wal-Mart executives out to the real world is clogged. It is time to get the plumber. Believing that money isn’t always in the right hands should be no more difficult than the unfortunate occurrence of a drain clogging.

The issue of unclogging the money drain is to make the economy fit reality. In reality, Wal-Mart has more than its fair share of money, and consequently Wal-Mart executives are not permitted to spend their money by Hashem. Sure they can admire their bank accounts, but Hashem forbids that they spend.

Some suggest that the reason executives don’t spend is due to confidence. They suggest that nervousness or uncertainty is the monkey wrench in the economic machine – imagine that billionaires more uncertain that folks making minimum wage - but their ability to spend has very little to do with confidence, especially in comparison to karma. If Wal-Mart had better karma, then they would be able to spend more of their money.

We need to take the money out of Wal-Mart's hands and do something constructive with it rather than waiting the rest of our lives for Wal-Mart to get some "confidence." Perhaps, the most important thing that we could do with this money is tackle the debt and deficit. We could also use the money to build infrastructure. Therefore, I do not suggest just handing it out to the poor at random though there should likely be some of that too.

Economics and money are 2 separate things. I looked it up in my Webster’s Collegiate Dictionary and found that money was nowhere to be found in the definition of economics.

To believe that one will die without money is a popular lie. It is true that some people may die without money, but it is important to know that money isn’t life sustaining in the way that Gd creates this universe to be sustaining. You could live a wonderful life and have no money because money isn’t always the way of acquiring more stuff. It is only true that if money is demanded by you, then your experience will reciprocate that. If you demand money from others, especially those deserving and who do not have money, then money will be demanded of you at a time when you don’t have the benefit of money.

Belief that money is the solution, and that money is more important than hard work, is as the snake in the Garden of Eden telling us that if we only believe provision comes from money (and not Gd), then we will surly die for lack of money. The snake tries to trick us into selling our labor at a cost. However, I suggest working hard, and hoping in Hashem that everything will take care of itself and goodness will arise from this hard work.

I am not saying that all money is a bad thing. Money may certainly be a powerful and useful tool for good, especially in trade. However, I don't equate increasing money to increasing gain. For instance, I do believe wellness and hard work go together. I don't believe hard work, or even any work results in increased cash flow or that money equates to personal wellness. For me it is all about being well.

Historically, since capitalism has become prominent, the state of the world has drastically improved. This has led many to attribute capitalism to wellness. However, it is not just money that has improved. The world is radically different now from how it used to be, and that may be attributed to various forms of technology as well. However, money is as the training wheels of a bicycle. Sooner or later, the training wheels should come off. And then, once they do it is my hope that it doesn’t result in poverty or increased laziness. On the contrary my goal is that people work hard because working hard is rewarding.

A Quick Explanation of My Vote: If any should wonder about my thoughts on the Tuesday Election.

1. At the Federal level, I am voting Republican or Independent. This is mainly to help see that we do not put a President with a legislature that is not his party. President Obama has demonstrated inability to work as a bipartisan, which is necessary if we are going to tackle the greatest issue that faces our country in this age, the deficit and debt of the USA!

2. At the State level, I am voting Democrat. In general, I am thrilled as to how things are going in my state. In fact, I believe MA to be the best and greatest state in the union, and we are mostly Democrat. We are an island of greatness in America. I want to continue that tradition by voting for incumbents.

3. This is not to say that voting Democrat is the right thing to do at the state level for other states. Thus, it is such that I believe Republican leadership might be what is best for other states, and I bless them that their voters choice the best choice for their respective state. 

Elections 2012: I Can’t Believe That There Is A Question as to Whether or Not We Need New Leadership

It’s practically unbelievable that there is even a contest for the 2012 election.  America is in the mud, and everyone seems to be worried that Mitt Romney will take away all the precious program funding and leave us to hang out to dry.  I do agree that Mitt Romney wants cuts.  And, I can only pray that they will be sensible cuts that will eventually balance the federal deficit.  However, what we have in office as I am writing this blog is a President that has proven himself to be completely ineffective at making any headway in reducing the federal deficit.  That amounts to this, America is either going to have to take its cuts, which I liken to taking needed medication, or else we will go on inflating the dollar as a sick nation on a crash course with oblivion.
 

Ladies and gentlemen, I implore you, look at the evidence.  President Obama has not been able to make even a dent in the deficit in 4 years, and many people want to reelect him.  The evidence is that if he since he has not made any headway, that if we give him another 4 years, it is only reasonable that we can expect the deficit to remain unchanged, while trillions of dollars are once again heaped onto the federal debt.
 

America needs change, and the only way we are going to get it is if in the next four years we balance the federal deficit.  Otherwise, we can only expect the devaluation of the dollar.  Yes, there are consequences to running big deficits and the primary one is inflation of the dollar.  If you don’t know what that means, it means things get more expensive though you do not have necessary money to pay for them.  That is, with inflation, your money won’t stretch as far, and while you might have programs, the inertia of these programs to adapt to fiscal change is also very likely to leave those whom are unfortunate without anyway.  They can’t be saved.  Unless Obama does a 180 and suddenly starts putting forth potential ideas that are bipartisan to balance the budget America’s future will remain bleak.  So, let’s put a stop to the Obama bin Laden’s insane fiscal policies.
 

First, and foremost, if we give someone who has already failed at this another chance, as in another chance to be able to work in a bipartisan House and Senate in order to accomplish something for good we as Americans are headed more and more into the direction of becoming indentured servants, for future generations.
 

When I elected President Obama, I had two things in mind.  I wanted national healthcare, and I wanted a balanced federal budget.  I believed then, and I still believe now that those two things are capable of being accomplished.  Medication and medicine pays for itself, and I believed that the Democrats could make headway in balancing the debt because I believed in President Barrack Obama’s ability to fall in the steps former President Bill Clinton during his term in office.  However, I was wrong.  Barrack Obama wasn’t the answer, and I still think John McCain was not the correct answer either.  Hopefully, though it may take some financial responsibility, the voters will elect someone new, and not someone who has done nothing on the most important issue we face in the last 4 years.